One year ago, we commented, “Rate cuts that occur because the Fed ‘can,’ not because they ‘must,’ is the preferred path” for investors. It’s not that we have special insights when peering into the future. We have yet to find anyone who can consistently and accurately forecast peaks and valleys in the stock market.
2024 was a year of unexpectedly strong market performance. Major stock market indices generated historic gains with the S&P 500 returning 25.0% with dividends, the Nasdaq 29.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 15.0%.
Elections and politics are difficult topics. Give 10 people one political topic, and you will likely get at least 15 opinions…or more.
Last month, the bull market turned two years old. Since bottoming on October 12, 2022, the S&P 500 Index has advanced 60% through the last day of October, according to S&P 500 data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.
Last month, the Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut since early 2020, lopping one half of one percent (0.50%) off the fed funds rate, bringing the key rate down to 4.75 – 5.00%.
Last month, we cautioned you about a calendar quirk that sometimes surfaces in August and September. Briefly, “Since 1970, the average monthly return for the S&P 500 Index (excluding dividends) has been +0.09% during August and -0.96% in September, according to S&P 500 data provided by the St. Louis Federal Reserve.”